China box office isn’t Hollywood kingmaker it used to be. Here’s why

Hollywood has lost one of its most lucrative theatrical markets. It’s unclear if it will ever win it back.

The Chinese box office was once a coveted space for American-made movies, so much so that studios produced films that would appeal directly to this international audience. But in the postpandemic cinema landscape, Hollywood hasn’t generated the strong ticket sales it once saw for its biggest blockbusters — and a waning relationship with Chinese cinemas is at least partly to blame.

The U.S.-China Film Agreement, struck in 2012 between the two governments, guaranteed 34 U.S. films would be released in China each year. That pact ended in 2017 and was never renewed or renegotiated. At the same time, China began expanding its local film production and instituting blackout dates to promote viewership of its homegrown titles. 

Add in strict censorship policies from the China Film Administration and recent political strains between the U.S. and China, and Hollywood films have faced several hurdles just to get distribution in the country post-Covid.

“I think that the kind of euphoria about the world’s largest market and thinking about China as a place that always creates a larger market for U.S. [intellectual property] is not accurate,” said Aynne Kokas, a professor at the University of Virginia and the author of “Hollywood Made in China.”

“[There are] constraints on the market in a couple of ways, first related to content control and not just content control in terms of censorship, but also in terms of control of distribution channels by the party,” Kokas said.

She said the film bureau will “turn on and off the levers of distribution based on the needs of the market.” If local Chinese films are doing well, the country will limit distribution access for foreign films. If there are gaps in film releases or releases aren’t selling as many tickets, it will open up the market.

In 2019, nine U.S. titles each generated more than $100 million at the Chinese box office, with Disney and Marvel Studio’s “Avengers: Endgame” collecting more than $600 million in the region, according to data from Comscore.

In the past five years combined, however, only 10 American films have generated more than $100 million in China, with only two topping $200 million.

The outlier is Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which tallied a record-breaking $650 million in the country following its 2025 release.

Box office analysts tell CNBC that this feat is likely an anomaly and studios and Wall Street shouldn’t expect a sudden resurgence of ticket sales for American-made fare in the region even as major franchises launch ahead of the key summer movie season.