Grocery shock on the horizon for U.S. elections as Iran war drags on
A customer shops in a grocery store on March 11, 2026 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Rising grocery prices in the U.S. as the result of the Iran war could be among the most politically damaging outcomes of the conflict just months before a critical U.S. election.
Two years earlier, President Donald Trump won reelection after hammering the high costs of eggs, bacon and other grocery store staples. Now he and the Republican Party may be faced with even higher food prices as they try to retain control of Congress in this year’s midterm elections.
Democrats are looking to capitalize on the spike by pinning it on Trump’s decision to go to war, while Republicans are choosing their words to downplay economic forecasts of higher prices for the fuel and fertilizer needed to produce and ship the food voters eat.
“Our messaging is affordability and accountability,” Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview. “It’s a pretty tailored message, pretty narrowly focused, and on both of those pillars, Trump is making our arguments even more compelling.”
“There are a number of ways in which this president is driving up food and energy costs and fueling the affordability crisis,” Huffman said. “On all of these fronts, we would have a chance to rein in the craziness. I really think it sets up in a very compelling way for Democrats in this election.”
The war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have rocked the global economy. Oil and gasoline prices have soared, fertilizer costs have spiked and markets have plummeted.
Grocery store shock
The next shock could come at the grocery store, a crucial pain point for millions of Americans who have already weathered years of increased food prices. All of this is happening as election season kicks off with primaries and campaign trail messaging. This year’s elections will be viewed as a referendum on Trump, who came into office vowing to lower food costs.
“It just pisses them off more,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a South Texas Democrat, told CNBC in an interview when asked about how voters will react if food gets more expensive. “When people hear that, they’re like ‘hey, I can’t pay for groceries and you want to go pay for a war in the Middle East?’ I think that’s going to be a tough sell.”
Gonzalez, who already represents a swing seat, saw his district get significantly redder this election cycle after Trump ordered Texas to redraw its congressional district maps to benefit Republicans. The expected price hikes at the grocery store only buttress the affordability narrative that has overcome the midterm contest.
Food faces a number of new inflationary pressures due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in oil costs is raising the price of diesel, necessary for farmers and the trucks and railroads that carry food across the country. Fertilizer is also being choked by the closure of the…
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