Microsoft’s stock closes worst quarter since 2008 financial crisis

Microsoft just closed out its worst quarter on Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis, as investors soured on the software giant’s prospects in artificial intelligence.

The stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq, which fell 7% in the period. Microsoft bounced back a bit on Tuesday, alongside a broader market rally, with the shares gaining 3.3%, the biggest jump since July.

While Microsoft remains dominant in workplace productivity software and through its Windows operating system, the company is facing twin pressures to grow efficiently in AI while also building out its cloud AI infrastructure to support soaring demand.

Oil prices are surging because of the war in Iran, potentially driving up costs for building and running data centers. And on the product side, Copilot, Microsoft’s AI assistant, has yet to show a lot of traction as users flock to competitive services from Google, OpenAI and Anthropic.

“Redmond is in a pickle,” wrote Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research, in a note on March 23, referring to Microsoft’s headquarters. Reitzes, who has a hold rating on the stock, said the company has to use valuable capacity from its Azure cloud to fix Copilot, but has no choice “since Copilot is needed to maintain momentum in its most profitable and largest segment.”

Microsoft declined to comment.

Meanwhile, software stocks are getting pummeled as part of an AI-inspired “SaaSpocalypse” that’s pushed names like Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow down more than 30% this year.

“Much of traditional SaaS is dying/in likely terminal decay,” Jason Lemkin, founder of SaaStr, wrote this week in a post on X, using the acronym for software as a service. In a blog post, he noted that earnings multiples for software trail the S&P 500.

Microsoft’s multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT, according to Capital IQ data.

Gil Luria, an analyst at DA Davidson, told CNBC that the selloff isn’t justified, and he recommends buying shares. In the latest quarter, Microsoft reported revenue growth of almost 17%, accelerating from a year earlier.

“The dislocation in the fundamental performance of Microsoft and the stock performance of Microsoft, and the valuation of Microsoft, is the biggest it’s been in decades,” Luria said. He said he expects the company’s earnings growth to outpace the broader market this year.

“There is no stickier product in all of enterprise software than Microsoft Windows and Office,” he said.

Microsoft has been trying to build a larger revenue base from productivity software with the Microsoft 365 Copilot AI add-on, but so far just 3% of commercial Office customers have licenses for it. Luria said he has access to 365 Copilot,…