Trump sends more troops to Iran — but it may backfire, analysts say

Nearly a month into the Iran war, the United States is preparing to send thousands of additional soldiers to the Middle East, expanding a military footprint that already has tens of thousands of American personnel in the region.

But the buildup signals something other than preparation for a ground offensive, according to analysts who suggested it is an exercise in coercive diplomacy — designed to increase leverage as President Donald Trump turns up the pressure for Iran to come to the negotiating table.

“President Trump is essentially saying either you — the Iranians — can cut a deal now or face potentially more intense consequences down the road,” Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at RAND school of public policy, told CNBC via email. The military buildup gives the president optionality, not just to strike, but to bargain from strength, Cohen noted.

Washington and Tehran have struggled to find a path to start negotiations over peace terms, with each side insisting it holds the upper hand in the conflict while portraying the other as the more desperate one.

The U.S. has circulated a 15-point peace plan, demanding what would amount to a complete termination of Iran’s nuclear program and sharp limits on the reach and size of its missile arsenal — similar to the ones touted in February, before negotiations fell through and led to a joint U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran.

The Iranian government, for its part, has declared it will not end the conflict unless Washington pays war reparations and recognizes Tehran’s “exercise of sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier on Thursday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that no negotiations were taking place between Tehran and Washington.

Pakistan has offered to facilitate peace talks in pursuit of a “comprehensive settlement” of the ongoing war. But neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed such discussions.

At the same time, the U.S. ordered on Tuesday to send thousands more soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the region that could be rapidly deployed for possible additional military action, such as seizing the Kharg Island oil port or reopening the strait, if negotiations falter.

Those forces may give the president more leverage in his negotiations, but also risk fueling Tehran’s resentment and provoking a harsher response, analysts say.

“Diplomacy is almost always backed up by force,” Iranian-American historian Arash Azizi said in an email to CNBC, adding that under Trump, this is done even “more openly and more crudely.”

The administration has been notably inconsistent in its messaging, with Trump reportedly saying that he wants a speedy end to the war while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has kept up his warlike warnings,…