When and how could Gulf states retaliate against Iranian strikes?

Iran’s strikes are pushing Gulf states toward a breaking point, forcing a choice between restraint and retaliation.

Iran’s Gulf neighbors have been repeatedly targeted and hit by Iranian drones and missiles as part of the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory strikes against the U.S. and Israel’s bombardment since late February.

The latest and perhaps most significant escalation in attacks on Iran’s neighbors came this week when Tehran launched retaliatory missile attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal following Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field.

Gulf states — from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait — have responded to Iran’s repeated attacks on their energy infrastructure by saying “a price must be paid” and that the attacks “cannot go unanswered,” but, so far, they have not retaliated.

That diplomatic and defensive position can’t and won’t last forever, analysts say, noting that the Gulf states are now likely weighing up when, where and how they might shift from a neutral stance to an offensive one.

Patience among the Gulf states is obviously wearing thin, with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud warning early Thursday that tolerance of Iranian attacks on his country and neighboring Gulf states is limited.

“I think it’s important for the Iranians to understand that the kingdom, but also its partners who have been attacked and beyond, have very significant capacities and capabilities that they could bring to bear should they choose to do so,” he said.

“The patience that is being exhibited is not unlimited. Do they [the Iranians] have a day, two, a week? I’m not going to telegraph that,” he added. CNBC has requested further comment from the foreign ministry.

Gulf leaders face a difficult dilemma as Iran continues to target their critical infrastructure across the region, analysts told CNBC.

“Despite extensive diplomatic efforts … to remain neutral, the Gulf states find themselves right in the centre of Iran’s firing line,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC Wednesday.

“Active steps to remain neutral – like limiting U.S. access to bases in the region – have done little to shield the Gulf states from Iranian attacks. But any decision to take military action against Iran could spark an even worse Iranian retaliation,” he noted.

The decision facing Gulf leaders is between two main options, both of which carry significant risks: “Double down on diplomacy and defensive measures or pivot to an offensive stance aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to carry out attacks,” he added.