Oil and trade tariff uncertainty rattle global markets
A vendor pumps petrol from Iranian fuel oil tankers for resale near the Bashmagh border crossing on March 11, 2026. The International Energy Agency said its member countries would unlock 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves to ease the impact of the Middle East war, the biggest such release ever. The crude market has been hit by wild volatility since the United States and Israel began striking Iran at the end of last month, with Tehran retaliating by attacking targets across the oil-rich Gulf and effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. (Photo by Ozan KOSE / AFP via Getty Images)
Ozan Kose | Afp | Getty Images
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Global oil markets got a theoretical safety valve Wednesday when the International Energy Agency agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil, while the U.S. said it would tap 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower energy costs.
Still, markets were not exactly reassured. Crude prices closed more than 4% higher Wednesday, while U.S. markets ended mixed after several commercial vessels were attacked off Iran’s coast. At least three cargo ships were struck by suspected projectiles as of Wednesday morning local time in or near the Strait of Hormuz, causing one of them to catch fire and forcing the crew to evacuate. European markets also settled lower Wednesday, while U.S. stock futures slipped.
Oil is only part of the story. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also disrupted fertilizer shipments since late last month, raising the risk of higher agricultural costs and, eventually, food inflation. More than one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait, making it a critical passageway for agricultural supply chains. The timing is critical because fertilizers are applied early in the crop cycle and help determine yields later in the year. With other commodities like aluminum taking a hit, the Middle East conflict could further damage supply chains and become a tipping point for the global economy.
As if the volatility in global markets weren’t enough, the Trump administration on Wednesday launched trade probes into more than a dozen countries, with the goal of replacing President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which were recently ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. The investigations will be conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits the U.S. to impose tariffs on imported goods from other economies found to have engaged in unfair trade practices. Among the Asian economies being probed are China, Japan, India, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Thailand.
In other words, energy markets are volatile, supply chains are tightening and trade tensions are warming up (again). Global markets rarely enjoy juggling all three at once.
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