What the fallout from the Iran war means for Havana
Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) takes part in the “Anti-Imperialist” protest in front of the US Embassy against the US incursion in Venezuela, where 32 Cuban soldiers lost their lives, in Havana on January 16, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Images
“Cuba’s next,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican and ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, after the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran.
The U.S. has imposed an oil blockade on the communist-run island nation since January, shortly after its ally and a key provider of oil, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was seized in an extraordinary U.S military operation. It has caused a worsening economic crisis and left Cuba facing its biggest test since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now Iran, with which Cuba has a strategic partnership, is under sustained attack. “This communist dictatorship in Cuba, their days are numbered,” Graham told Fox News’s “Sunday Night in America.”
Before the Iran strikes, Trump said he wanted a “friendly takeover” of the island, without giving details. The comments, alongside the U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela, have done little to allay growing fears in Havana, experts told CNBC.
The message from Cuba is one that has been constant since 1959: survival will only be achieved through adaptation to the changing geopolitical context.
Par Kumaraswami
professor at the University of Nottingham
A “friendly takeover” could resemble Venezuela in the aftermath of Maduro’s removal, “where you still have an authoritarian regime in power but moving in the direction and at the speed that the US determines,” said Carlos Solar, senior research fellow, Latin American Security at RUSI, a London-based defense think tank.
Solar told CNBC by email that Cuba had lost support from Venezuela and Iran “at a moment of maximum pressure” from the Trump administration.
But he added: “What is unclear is how the US will make the Cuban regime break, forcing Havana to capitulate.”
“We are not seeing the kind of military buildup prelude to operation Absolute Resolve that eventually led to Maduro being captured in January. It could well be that the US approaches Cuba in a totally different way,” Solar said.
A Turkish Airlines plane takes off at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on February 9, 2026.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Images
A spokesperson for the White House and Cuba’s embassy in London did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.
Cuba’s Foreign Affairs Ministry has called for an end to the Middle East conflict and said it “condemns in the strongest terms” the joint U.S. and Israel attack on Iran on Feb. 28.
‘Cubans are increasingly concerned’
Russia recently warned that the situation in Cuba appeared to be escalating after Cuban forces killed four people who were off its coast in a U.S.-registered speedboat.
The blockade has effectively cut Cuba off from Venezuelan oil since launching a military operation to capture Maduro on Jan. 3. Cuba said 32 of its citizens were killed in the…
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