How Iran and Venezuela strikes transform the Trump-Xi trade talks

China‘s opposition to the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran is stoking tensions between Beijing and Washington just weeks before a high-stakes meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

The Middle East offensive, which has killed China-friendly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a slew of other Iranian officials, shows the U.S. doubling down hard on its willingness to eschew diplomacy and launch high-risk military operations in pursuit of its global goals. The war began less than two months after the U.S. attacked Venezuela to capture the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, who are now both in custody in New York City.

The actions also show that, even as a tumultuous trade war between the U.S. and China has settled into an uneasy detente, the Trump administration is willing to rock the boat in countries where Beijing exerts significant influence.

The attacks aren’t likely to halt or compromise diplomacy between the two superpowers. But they will set the “mood music” for Trump’s upcoming summit with Xi in China, said Tim Keeler, partner and co-head of international trade at Mayer Brown.

The display of speed and force in the Maduro raid was “nothing short of stunning” and served as a reminder to China of U.S. military capabilities, Keeler said in a phone interview.

If the Iran incursion shapes up similarly to Venezuela, “then it could end up being a significant change in the nature of the background music for the meeting,” he said.

That could affect both the talks themselves and any agreements that come out of them, experts say. And while some think the U.S. strikes may give Trump a slight boost with Xi, they also note the advantage could flip to China depending how the days-old war evolves.

Trump is expected to travel to China from March 31 to April 2. Beforehand, top U.S. and Chinese trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are expected to meet in Paris to discuss tariffs and possible deals on U.S. soybeans and Boeing aircraft, Bloomberg reported this week.

In the days since, the administration’s explanations for both the timing and broader…