Why France’s nuclear strategy pivot is so significant

“To be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be powerful,” French President Emmanuel Macron said during a landmark speech this week on nuclear deterrence.

France is one of only two nuclear powers in Europe and, unlike the U.K., operates a nuclear weapons system entirely independent of the U.S.

As the U.S. and Israel continued to strike Iran, and European leaders appeared divided and sidelined as they scrambled to react, Macron delivered a speech on Monday that was “the most significant update to French nuclear deterrence policy in 30 years,” Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, said in a thread on X.

Speaking from a naval base in Brittany in front of a submarine, “Le Téméraire,” Macron’s 45-minute speech laid out what he called a new “forward deterrence” doctrine for France.

Macron said France would increase its number of nuclear warheads and promised more cooperation with European allies that have expressed interest.

He said several European countries — Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark — could take part in exercises of France’s air-launched nuclear capacity and France’s nuclear bombers could be stationed at their air bases. Macron also said France would stop disclosing the figures for its nuclear arsenal.

“The world is becoming more difficult, and recent events have demonstrated this once again,” he said in the speech.

“We must strengthen our nuclear deterrent in the face of the combination of threats, and we must consider our deterrence strategy within the depths of the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty, through the progressive implementation of what I would call forward deterrence.”

Yannick Pincé, associate professor of history at the Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, told CNBC that the speech had to be seen in the context of next year’s presidential election, which a far-right National Rally candidate could win.

“He needed to give a politically acceptable speech, to announce measures that would be difficult to reverse next year,” Pincé said.

“At the same time, he needed to be credible enough with our allies. He was walking a tightrope, and from my point of view, he succeeded rather well.”

An independent nuclear deterrent has been the cornerstone of France’s defense strategy for more than 60 years.

But Macron said that the doctrine has to evolve with the threats. In 2020, Macron hinted at a shift when he said that France’s “vital interests” – a definition of which remains deliberately vague – now had “a European dimension.”

On Monday, Macron said that the years since 2020 “weigh like decades, and the…