Five races to watch on the day the 2026 midterm elections kick off

Tuesday is the first moment of truth for the 2026 midterm elections. It’s the day the first polls will close to kick off a seven-month stretch of primaries that will help shape who will win the House and Senate on Election Day, Nov. 3.

While Democrats are favored to win the House and Republicans seem likely to keep the Senate, much will depend on the results of the primaries leading up to the big day. Here are five early races taking place Tuesday that will indicate how the rest of the election could go:

Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, is attempting to keep his seat in a heated primary against two challengers: State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt, who represents a Houston-area district.

Despite Senate Republicans and establishment donors pouring tens of millions into the race for Cornyn, most polls show Paxton as the frontrunner. His track record opposing President Joe Biden and backing President Donald Trump has made him a favorite of the MAGA crowd, with an endorsement from Turning Point USA, the influential group founded by Charlie Kirk.

Yet a Paxton victory in the primary means Republicans would likely need to sink additional millions into the state to win in November. Paxton is scandal plagued. He’s in the middle of an acrimonious divorce, was impeached by the Texas House over corruption allegations and was charged with securities fraud.

Trump hasn’t endorsed in the race. He had complimentary words for both Cornyn and Paxton when he visited Corpus Christi, Texas on Friday, saying they’re “both great people.” He also mentioned Hunt.

The more money Republicans need to spend defending Texas in the general, the less there will be for other battleground states.

Hunt is also painting himself as a more conservative choice than Cornyn. While Hunt is not expected to win, he could cause the primary to head into a May 26 runoff if no candidate gets a majority of the vote.