which countries will be hit the most

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is sending shockwaves across global energy markets, with Asia expected to face the maximum pain.

A senior commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been shut and warned that any vessel attempting to transit the waterway would be targeted, Iranian media reported.

Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait functions as a vital artery for global oil trade. Roughly 13 million barrels per day passed through it in 2025, representing about 31% of all seaborne crude flows, according to energy consulting firm Kpler.

A prolonged closure of the Strait would likely lead to a further surge in oil prices, with some analysts seeing oil crossing $100 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent was last up 2.6% at around $80 per barrel —almost 10% higher since the conflict broke out.

About 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports that come from the Gulf are also at risk, primarily those originating from Qatar and shipped via the Strait of Hormuz, according to Kpler. Qatar, one of the world’s largest providers of LNG, halted production on Monday after Iranian drones hit its facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City.

“In Asia, Thailand, India, Korea and the Philippines are the most vulnerable to higher oil prices, due to their high import dependence, while Malaysia would be a relative beneficiary since it is an energy exporter,” Nomura wrote in a note on Monday.

Here’s how those reliant on Gulf energy and shipments via the Strait of Hormuz stand to be impacted.

South Asia: immediate physical strain

South Asia would face the most acute disruption, particularly when it comes to supplies of LNG, analysts said.

Qatar and the UAE account for 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s, and 53% of India’s, according to Kpler data.

With limited storage and procurement flexibility, Pakistan and Bangladesh are especially vulnerable. For one, Bangladesh is already running a significant structural gas deficit. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the country is running a shortfall of more than 1,300 million cubic feet per day.

“Pakistan and Bangladesh have limited storage and procurement flexibility, meaning disruption would likely trigger fast power-sector demand destruction rather than aggressive spot bidding,” Katayama said.

India faces the largest combined exposure in the region. “More than half of its LNG imports are Gulf-linked, and a significant share is Brent-indexed, so a Hormuz-driven crude spike would simultaneously lift oil import costs and LNG contract prices. That creates a dual physical and financial shock,” he said.

Similarly, about 60% of India’s oil imports come from the Middle East, according to UBP. A sustained blockade would therefore amplify both…