AI Still Has Legs, but Valuation Risk is Back in Focus

By Finance News On Feb 22, 2026

The tech rally that powered markets through 2025 is being tested in 2026.

In early February, a broad tech selloff hit markets, fueled by various elements, including aggressive artificial intelligence (AI) capital spending guidance from hyperscalers, as well as the rapid release of new AI models, which sparked disruption concerns within the software sector. This powerful combination forced investors to separate durable AI leaders from stocks whose gains were driven mainly by sentiment and stretched valuations.

Technology benchmarks saw significant losses. From December 31, 2025, to its February 5 year‑to‑date low, the S&P Technology Index (INDEXSP:SP500-45) dropped by nearly 7 percent. Software-focused measures were hit especially hard; the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS:IGV) declined by almost 25 percent.

Meanwhile, semiconductor‑focused peers like the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) remained up more than 5 percent over the same stretch. The divergence underscored how quickly a broad AI theme can split into clear winners and laggards depending on where revenues and profits are actually showing up.

Indexes have since returned some of their losses, but investors with a multi‑year horizon need portfolio construction that can withstand the volatile nature of a sentiment-sensitive sector like tech. In this kind of environment, the challenge becomes building exposure to long‑term AI growth without drifting into a concentrated valuation risk trade.

James Learmonth serves as co-chief investment officer at Harvest ETFs and oversees strategies including the Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF (TSX:HTA). Over the same period, it declined only by about 7 percent, underscoring the difference between a diversified, income‑oriented structure and a pure software basket.

Learmonth spoke to the Investing News Network (INN) about how he distinguishes long‑term structural growth from short‑term valuation risk. Read on for his key takeaways and outlook.

Why did tech stocks sell off in early February?

After piling into AI‑linked software and services names on strong cloud and AI‑related revenue growth, the technology sector underwent a steep correction from its October 2025 high. The decline followed earnings reports that included guidance pointing to sustained, capital‑intensive buildouts and longer payback periods.

After hyperscalers signaled aggressive 2026 infrastructure spending, market participants began to question return‑on‑investment timelines, even as fundamentals largely held up.

Companies with less certain paths to monetization saw their share prices decrease rapidly, while those showing profitable AI‑driven growth and measurable returns on invested capital were hit less hard. Disruption‑driven headlines, such as the launch of Anthropic’s Claude Cowork tools and new AI assistants aimed at legal and accounting workflows, added to…