Why Americans feel so bad about a growing economy

Welcome to the “boomcession.”

The term is a portmanteau of the words “boom” and “recession.” It highlights how the average American doesn’t feel like they’re reaping the benefits of an economy that is — on paper — humming along, according to creator Matt Stoller.

Economic output and the stock market are surging, consumers are spending big and the post-pandemic recession that many expected never materialized. But many feel terrible about their finances, with debt at all-time highs, and the majority of Americans incorrectly believe the country is in an economic slowdown.

“Traditionally, the economy is doing really well,” said Stoller, an antimonopoly advocate and research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, a nonpartisan thinktank. “But ordinary people are saying they’re not.”

It’s thematically similar to the “vibecession,” a term popularized in 2022 to explain the disconnect between solid economic data and negative consumer sentiment readings exiting the pandemic. It can also draw comparisons to the “K-shaped economy,” a phrase illustrating how Americans can feel vastly different depending on their income bracket.

Stoller’s “boomcession” framework aims to bring awareness beyond opinion to the material financial hardships faced by those not in America’s uppermost echelons, he said. Once that’s contextualized, it’s easier to understand why many Americans believe the national economic engine they help power isn’t propelling them forward, Stoller said.

On its surface, Stoller said the “boomcession” theory can help explain why data in recent years shows that U.S. GDP growth hasn’t correlated with better consumer sentiment readings. That marks a significant break from the typical trend seen over the past six decades.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at consulting firm KPMG. “I’ve been doing this for 40 years. And that’s a long time to never see anything like this.”

Helping drive that disconnect, Stoller and economists say, is the fact that inflation isn’t one size fits all. Consumers face different rates of price growth based on factors like their income class or geographical location, data shows.

Grocery and shelter inflation rose the most of any essential tracked by Morgan Stanley between 2020 and 2025. Those two categories made up a disproportionately high share of lower-income consumers’ spending in 2024, the bank found.

Lower earners historically see higher rates of inflation than their better-off counterparts, said Morgan Stanley economist Heather Berger. The inflationary gap widens when overall price growth is above the Federal Reserve‘s target of 2% — as has been largely the case for the past several years, according to the bank.

This can’t be written off as a post-pandemic idiosyncrasy. The Atlanta Fed reported this year that food prices rose around 9% more in poorer areas than richer ones between the second quarter of…