Manganese Market Forecast: Top Trends for Manganese in 2026
After taking a bearish turn in late 2024, manganese prices started 2025 on a flat note despite a robust demand outlook supported by growth in the electric vehicle (EV) battery segment.
In the first half of 2025, the manganese market experienced mixed signals as supply dynamics shifted and demand from the steelmaking sector remained uneven. Early in the year, logistical disruptions and tight inventories in China briefly supported manganese ore prices — China’s port stocks fell to multi-year lows in March, drawing down to roughly 3.7 million metric tons due to by logistical bottlenecks and steady consumption by alloy makers and steel producers.
A rebound in sales in early spring pushed ore prices to a 2025 high of US$4.48 per metric ton.
However, by mid-year, the broader picture was one of ample supply and downward price pressure.
Manganese ore production climbed to around 10.1 million metric tons in H1, buoyed by strong export volumes from South Africa and Gabon and the resumption of Australian shipments that had been disrupted in 2024.
At the same time, global steel output weakened, particularly in China, where production declined about 3 percent year-on-year amid slowing domestic demand, while India and North America posted modest gains.
Demand for manganese alloys also softened, with sales volumes down modestly and margins compressed by rising feedstock costs, especially for alloy producers facing less favorable mixes.
Manganese prices struggle as structural demand builds
By June 20, 2025, manganese’s H1 gains had eroded and ore prices fell to US$4.21.
Eramet (EPA:ERA,OTCPL:ERMAF), a major producer, said it expected supply of manganese ore to increase in the second half of 2025, partly as key producers such as Australia returned volumes to market after earlier disruptions.
“Ore supply should increase in H2, driven by the full return to the market of the leading Australian producer, partly offset by a potential downward revision of South African exports,” the company notes. Demand for manganese alloys was expected to weaken in line with seasonality and softer global steel production.
Analysts cautioned that production expansions from major manganese producers could exacerbate oversupply. “Production increases … can only lead to oversupply, leading to a reduction in price,” one industry executive said.
Protectionist measures in key markets, including new EU quotas on ferroalloys, added uncertainty by potentially disrupting traditional trade flows and affecting alloy pricing dynamics.
Beyond the steel sector, structural shifts in consumption patterns emerged.
Although steelmaking still accounts for the lion’s share of manganese demand, interest in battery-related uses, particularly high-purity manganese for lithium-ion and next-generation EV chemistries, continued to gain attention.
“Our expectations of ongoing strengthening battery-grade demand and production in China in Q4…
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