Stock markets aren’t moving on Iran, Greenland and Venezuela risks

The first two weeks of 2026 have seen U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration capture Venezuela’s president, threaten to respond to Iran’s violent crackdown on protests, and talk up the possibility of using force to seize Greenland. So why are stocks rising?

The headlines have caused price swings in asset classes like gold, silver and oil as traders sought safe havens and weighed the impact a U.S. intervention in the Middle East could have on oil supply.

Equity markets, however, appear to be shrugging off the news. The S&P 500 has had just three losing sessions since markets began the new trading year, and was up around 1.5% year-to-date at Thursday’s close. Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, where the tensions hit much closer to home, have also risen, as have Asia-Pacific stocks.

Wall Street’s three major averages have made gains despite the news, appearing to shrug off U.S. President Donald Trump’s apparent willingness to order military operations overseas and threats to take territory from a close ally by force.

Alongside the S&P 500’s gain, Wall Street’s two other major averages are up this year: the Dow Jones Industrial Average has added close to 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 1.2%.

Eric Freedman, chief investment officer for Chicago-based Northern Trust Wealth Management, which manages assets worth $492.6 billion, said markets hadn’t been moved by Trump’s actions and rhetoric on Iran, Venezuela, and Greenland partly because no other large economic or military powers had responded.

“Markets are looking at these events in isolation, and it would likely take a unique response to each flare-up to drive more market agita,” he told CNBC in an email. “We don’t want to speculate what subsequent actions may follow, but what we would be concerned with beyond the human conditions in a given region would be if lines are drawn that impact trade in an increasingly sequestered world.”

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling is due soon on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, but, in the meantime, global investors appear to have adapted to the White House’s 2025 pivots, Freedman said.

“Increased flare ups beyond what has occurred already could push countries to revisit trade ties or threaten sanctions, but until they arrive, markets will remain in more reactive mode if an event happens and not necessarily adjust portfolio positioning now in anticipation of an event,” he added. “If markets were leaning into prescriptive positioning or the thought that taking defensive measures was appropriate because flare-up probabilities were increasing, we would likely see a weaker U.S. dollar.”

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major rivals, has risen by around 1% since the beginning of the year.