‘The trajectory of progress hinges’ on these 3 questions

Bill Gates is as optimistic about the world’s future as ever, despite the fact that we’re living through “an era with so many challenges and so much polarization,” the billionaire philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder wrote in a blog post on Friday.

The world faces plenty of causes for concern over issues like climate change, global health and poverty, and disruptions caused by artificial intelligence, Gates wrote. However, “we are far better off than when I was born 70 years ago,” wrote Gates, due particularly to innovations in technology and global health.

Gates also believes that conditions will keep improving over the next two decades, especially as AI spurs new advances, he wrote: “I am still an optimist because I see what innovation accelerated by artificial intelligence will bring.”

But there are a few caveats. “These days, my optimism comes with footnotes,” wrote Gates.

Specifically, Gates is concerned about three questions that could determine “the trajectory of [the world’s] progress,” he wrote:

1. Will a world that is getting richer increase its generosity toward those in need?

The number of worldwide deaths of children under 5 years old was projected to increase by roughly 200,000 in 2025, rising for the first time in 25 years, according to a report released by the Gates Foundation in December.

The projected stat is “the thing I am most upset about” regarding the world’s progress, Gates wrote on Friday. He linked it to significant cuts to global aid spending by leading world governments, including the U.S.

“Over the last 25 years, those deaths went down faster than at any other point in history. But in 2025, they went up for the first time this century…” wrote Gates. “This trend will continue unless we make progress in restoring aid budgets.”

The global standard of living’s continued improvement depends, in part, on wealthy countries and individuals — like himself — re-committing to contribute some of their abundant resources to help those in need and reduce inequality around the world, Gates wrote. The billionaire announced plans in May 2025 to step up his own charitable giving as part of a pledge to give away “virtually all” of his wealth — which is currently estimated at $118 billion by Bloomberg — by 2045.

“This idea of treating others as you wish to be treated does not just apply to rich countries giving aid. It must also include philanthropy from the wealthy to help those in need — both domestically and globally — which should grow rapidly in a world with a record number of billionaires and even centibillionaires,” he wrote on Friday.

2. Will the world prioritize scaling innovations that improve equality?

Gates’ optimism is bolstered by his belief in the power of technology, particularly AI, to create new breakthroughs in medical treatments, he wrote. Gates pointed to AI-powered advances in Alzheimer’s research, as well as cancer and health crises still faced by developing countries, from malaria to malnutrition.

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