Trump’s tariff fight at the Supreme Court could make for a messy refund

Company executives, customs brokers and trade lawyers are bracing for a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs — and a potential fight over obtaining a possible $150 billion US in refunds from the U.S. government for duties already paid by importers if he loses.

Anticipation that the court will strike down the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 rose following November arguments in the case when conservative and liberal justices alike voiced skepticism about whether that law gave him the authority to levy the duties.

The court is expected to issue rulings on Friday but, as is customary, has not said what case or cases will be acted upon.

Some companies anticipate that even if the court invalidates Trump’s tariffs, the Republican president will not make it easy for them to get refunds.

“It’s not in the government’s DNA to give back money. And Trump would not want to give back money,” said Jim Estill, CEO of Danby Appliances, a Canadian company that sells small refrigerators, microwaves and laundry equipment through big-box stores, including Home Depot.

The products are made in China and other Asian countries targeted by the Trump tariffs. If Danby can get its $7 million back, Estill said he is also concerned Home Depot and its customers will want a cut.

“It’s just going to be a dog’s breakfast,” Estill added.

Close to $150 billion US collected

Trump is the first president to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose tariffs. This law historically had been used for imposing sanctions on U.S. adversaries or freezing their assets.

His IEEPA-related tariffs generated $133.5 billion US in estimated collections between Feb. 4 and Dec. 14, 2025, the date of the most recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The current total is estimated to be approaching $150 billion US based on continuation of the average daily collection rates from late September through mid-December, as calculated by Reuters.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has voiced confidence that the Supreme Court will back Trump.

And U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said that Treasury and CBP would need to sort out any refund rights, and expressed confidence that any lost revenues could be replicated with new tariffs levied by Trump under other legal authorities.

Trump imposed IEEPA-related tariffs in two ways. Last April, he announced “reciprocal” tariffs on goods imported from most U.S. trading partners based on a national emergency he declared concerning U.S. trade deficits. In February and March, he imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, citing trafficking of the painkiller fentanyl and illicit drugs as a…