How the ousting of Russia’s ally Maduro benefits Moscow
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro shakes hands with his Russia counterpart Vladimir Putin during a meeting at the Moscow Kremlin.
Mikhail Metzel | TASS |Getty Images
Russia’s reaction to the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been cautious, with Moscow weighing up the potential geopolitical benefits and opportunities of the U.S.’ unilateral action against the loss of an important regional ally in Latin America.
Moscow initially condemned U.S. strikes on Venezuela on Saturday, and the subsequent capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Russia’s foreign ministry decried the U.S.’ “aggressive actions,” saying they constituted “an unacceptable infringement on the sovereignty of an independent state. However, the Kremlin has not issued an official response on the ousting, nor has Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Maduro was an ally of President Putin and Venezuela has long-standing ties with Russia; Caracas backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and as well as deep energy ties and military cooperation, both countries had a shared vested interest in counteracting the U.S.’ geopolitical, military and economic influence in the region.
Still, Maduro’s removal is not all bad news for Russia, and Moscow is likely to be looking at ways it can leverage the crisis in Venezuela to its own benefit.
Ukraine distraction
For a start, the Venezuela crisis comes at a delicate moment in Moscow’s own relations with Washington. It’s likely to be wary of burning bridges with the White House at a time when it’s trying to curry favor with the administration to get the most favorable terms from a prospective Ukraine peace deal.
But events in Venezuela provide a welcome distraction on that front, with Russia benefiting from any relaxation of efforts — or pressure — to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, or to enter into a ceasefire as part of any agreement.
While Russian forces are seen to have an advantage on the battlefield, not least in terms of manpower, and are making incremental progress in eastern Ukraine, a ceasefire is not seen to be in Russia’s interests.
“The Kremlin’s response to the U.S. operation in Venezuela has been boilerplate thus far,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, noted Sunday, adding that the Kremlin “will likely have to balance its responses between maintaining its credibility as a partner to other states with its continued efforts to cater to the Trump administration.”
Danger for Zelenskyy?
Analysts have also expressed concern that Trump’s capture of Maduro, and the criminal charges levelled against him, could give Russia carte blanche to do the same to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who Moscow frequently describes as a “criminal,” without presenting evidence to back up its accusations.
“He [Trump] is giving Putin permission to go as far as he wants with Zelenskyy,” Sarah Lenti, political consultant and former director on the National Security Council at the White House, told CNBC Monday.
“The president…
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