Palladium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Palladium in 2026
The palladium price surged upward in 2025 after three years of trending down and sideways.
Over 80 percent of demand comes from the auto sector, where palladium is used in catalytic converters. Platinum and palladium are mostly interchangeable for this end use, and are typically swapped as their prices fluctuate.
Strong growth in demand for electric and hybrid vehicles in recent years has placed downward pressure on palladium prices. On the supply side, Russia is one of the world’s top suppliers of palladium and other platinum-group metals.
In 2025, palladium prices soared by more than 83 percent as of mid-December on supportive demand signals from slowing electric vehicle (EV) adoption trends and concerns about Russian supply reliability.
The price of the metal reached a year-to-date high of US$1,675.50 per ounce on December 17.
What’s the outlook for palladium in 2026? Let’s see what the experts have to say.
Palladium demand depends on auto sector
As for China, China Passenger Car Association data shows retail auto sales fell by 8.1 percent year-on-year in November and 1.1 percent month-on-month; however, exports rose 52 percent to a record high of 601,000 units.
“New-energy vehicle sales grew only 4.2 percent year-over-year, undershooting expectations and reinforcing the theme that the domestic EV momentum is cooling faster than previously assumed,” said Hasan. “The export boom, however, keeps Chinese production elevated and sustains global palladium demand through foreign-market supply chains.”
The global slowdown in EV sales is also beneficial to palladium’s demand prospects. Reuters reported that global EV sales rose by just 6 percent in November on flat sales out of China and a 42 percent drop in North America after the Trump administration ended the EV tax credit scheme. That’s the slowest growth rate since February 2024.
“Slower electrification limits the speed of substitution away from palladium-heavy combustion engines, extending the life cycle of auto catalyst demand at a time when supply growth remains an open question,” Hasn stated.
Looking into 2026, S&P Global says light vehicle production will depend on changing US trade policies and emissions standards. Consumer demand could be weighed down by the extra costs brought about by tariffs.
“The broader pattern suggests flattish global production trends for 2026, a scenario that keeps palladium demand growth steady but not spectacular,” Hasn explained.
Another factor that may impact palladium demand in the coming year is the premium reversal and the potential for auto makers to swap platinum for palladium in autocatalysts.
Historically, palladium for the most part has traded at a premium to platinum; however, this trend reversed in late 2025 as the platinum market is facing a large supply deficit for the year.
In a September market update, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported that over…
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