Shoppers are heading into this year’s holiday season with a greater sense of apprehension. Persistent unease about the economy, inflation, and tariffs has many Americans quietly recalculating — asking not just what gifts to buy but what they can truly afford. The latest consumer surveys and annual holiday forecasts mirrored this trepidation heading into Black Friday — the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season — and followed by Cyber Week. The Conference Board’s November confidence index slipped to its lowest reading since April. Similarly, the University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge dropped to near all-time low levels. According to the 2025 Goldman Sachs holiday survey, 57% of consumers plan to spend the same or more on holiday gifts, a 2-percentage-point dip from last year; 43% intend to spend less this year, a 3-percentage point increase. The National Retail Federation expects a holiday spending gain of between 3.7% to 4.2% to over $1 trillion for the first time. The midpoint of 3.95%, however, represents slower growth compared to last year. The latest round of retail earnings — exemplified by Walmart , which is known for low prices — reflected these concerns across income brackets. During last week’s post-earnings conference call, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said, “Upper and middle income households [are] driving our growth. We continue to benefit from higher-income families choosing to shop with us more often. Middle-income households have been steady, [and] lower-income families have been under additional pressure of late.” While this kind of backdrop sets up retailers for a more subdued holiday quarter on paper, it could, for some, prove to be better than feared. For our portfolio retail holdings, Amazon , Costco , and TJX Companies , this season should highlight their individual strengths in a tougher economy. Here is a look at what Wall Street analysts — and the Club — are saying about how each could perform. Amazon: Club rating 1 (buy-equivalent) and $275 price target Amazon could emerge as the biggest beneficiary. Goldman’s survey found that Amazon remains the top holiday shopping destination, projecting year-over-year market-share gains. With more and more consumers planning to use artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and MetaAI to find and evaluate gifts, Amazon’s advanced recommendation systems and AI integration through its integrated conversational chatbot Rufus give it a competitive edge. Amazon also benefits from shoppers’ reliance on online convenience and price comparison as consumers hunt for the best deals amid persistent inflation. “Amazon maintains a leading 46% share of U.S. e-commerce and enters the holiday season with strong momentum from early promotions, one-day delivery, and lower cost to serve,” JPMorgan said in a note last week. According to the analysts, Amazon has a roughly 14% price advantage across 16 online categories, “further supporting demand and market-share…
Read More: How Amazon, TJX, Costco can benefit from a shaky consumer this holiday