WPIC: Platinum Market Set for 2026 Stability After Years of Deep Deficits
Platinum appears to be headed for its first broadly balanced year since 2021, with new projections pointing to a small surplus in 2026 as supply recovers and investment demand retreats from unusually elevated 2025 levels.
The latest Platinum Quarterly from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) shows the market is still firmly set for a deficit in 2025, with a shortfall of 692,000 ounces, equal to roughly 9 percent of annual demand.
However, 2026 may be a turning point where the extreme tightness of recent years begins to ease — not because demand is weakening broadly, but because investment activity is expected to normalize.
Platinum market starting to self-correct
The platinum price has risen sharply in 2025 alongside a strong performance across precious metals, and the WPIC states that higher prices have started to produce early signs of a “self-solving” market.
Recycling volumes, which respond more quickly to price incentives than mining output, are increasing at a double-digit pace and are set to play a larger role in 2026. At the same time, the buildup of exchange warehouse stocks linked to tariff uncertainty in the US is expected to unwind next year if trade frictions ease.
Those trends collectively underpin the WPIC’s baseline forecast for next year: a market moving to near equilibrium, with a small surplus of about 20,000 ounces in 2026.
High lease rates a key feature of 2025
While next year’s platinum surplus looks to be modest, it’s worth noting that physical availability of the metal has tightened to levels rarely seen in modern times. Platinum’s implied one month lease rate averaged 15 percent in the third quarter of the year after sitting at only 1 percent through most of 2024, pointing to spot market stress.
At times in mid-July, lease rates spiked near 40 percent as traders scrambled for metal that was either unavailable in Europe, or locked up in China and the US due to trade-related risk management.
Even if prices have moderated some of the pressure, elevated lease rates remains a defining feature of 2025.
The WPIC maintains that many of the concerns around availability stem from the simple drawdown of physical stocks. Years of persistent deficits reduced vaulted inventories in Europe, undermining assumptions that large, accessible stores of metal would remain available to supplement shortfalls.
Instead, the combination of region-specific demand, US tariff fears and aggressive Chinese imports resulted in metal being redistributed into markets where it could not easily be lent out.
Platinum supply/demand dynamics in 2026
The WPIC expects these pressures to ease next year as supply increases.
Total supply is forecast to rise 4 percent year-on-year in 2026 to 7,404,000 ounces, the highest since 2021.
Mine production is expected to inch higher, mainly because South African producers will be able to…
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