Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market?

Bitcoin price has started to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent move back below six figures has forced a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With several important technical and on-chain levels now lost, I have recalibrated my base case so that the probability of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. That can change quickly if major levels are reclaimed, but until then, the conditions resemble a market shifting away from trending strength and toward a deeper corrective phase.

Bitcoin Price: Is “Buying The Dip” Still the Right Move?

Bitcoin is already in a sizeable pullback, but buying every decline isn’t always the optimal approach outside of a confirmed bull trend. In a bear-market environment, what appear to be attractive dips can still lead to significantly lower prices. Short-term rallies and sharp retracements are typical in downtrending markets, so reacting to data rather than pre-emptively predicting a bottom becomes far more important.

This pattern of multiple dips is evident when we analyze the Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart during the last cycle. It is also clear to see how this metric acted as a key resistance throughout this phase, with sustained recovery only experienced once BTC reclaimed STH Realized Price levels.  

There is one caveat: if price meaningfully reclaims key levels, the entire picture shifts. That’s why a small allocation on this dip can make sense, while holding off on further buying until we see deeper macro confluence is a more defensive approach.

Black Friday Sale: 40% Off Annual Plans!

The BEST saving of the year is here. Get 40% off all our annual plans.

Unlock +100 Bitcoin charts.

• Access Indicator alerts – so you never miss a thing.
• Private TradingView indicators of your favorite Bitcoin charts.
• Members-only Reports and Insights.
• Many new charts and features coming soon.

All for just $17/month with the Black Friday deal. This is our biggest sale all year!

Bitcoin Price: Key Levels You Must Watch Right Now

The MVRV Z-Score and the Bitcoin Realized Price give a clearer sense of where the broader market’s cost basis sits. The realized cost basis of the network currently clusters around the mid-$50,000s, but this figure continues rising on a daily basis.

A similar narrative emerges from the 200-Week Moving Average, as this also currently sits in the mid-$50,000. Historically, points where this metric meets price have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.

Those levels rise slowly each day, meaning a potential…