Gold’s Long Game: New Orleans Panelists See More Upside Ahead

During the Mining Share Panel at the New Orleans Investment Conference, participants underscored that the gold bull market will continue — however, just where we are in that bull run was up for debate.

For conference host and Gold Newsletter editor Brien Lundin, there is still some way to go.

“The gold bull market is still in place. We don’t know how long it’s going to last. That’s the hard part. I think gold’s going to US$6,000 to US$8,000 (per ounce) in the cycle, maybe more. (The) mining share bull market, I would say we’re probably in the fourth inning, fifth inning, maybe. But you know, we could go to extra innings,” he said.

Strategic investor Jeff Phillips also believes the gold bull market is at an early stage.

“I would say that we are in the third or fourth inning,” he said. “This is early on in the bull market, but I do think there’ll be a rain delay, since we’re talking about baseball terminology. I think this is an epic bull market that we’re in.”

Phillips went on to compare today’s setup to past cycles, noting the strong run that gold saw between 2003 and 2007, before the financial crisis briefly derailed momentum. Although he anticipates another correction at some point, he remains confident in the broader bull market and said he is continuing to buy and stay patient.

For Jordan Roy-Byrne, understanding the difference between a secular and cyclical bull market is imperative.

“Secular — that’s the major long-term trend that usually lasts a decade or longer. Cyclically, it can be anywhere from two to five years or so,” explained the editor and publisher of the Daily Gold.

“I think the cyclical bull has three or four more years left. The risk when that gets long in the tooth is then you have what happened at 1975 to 1976, and also 2008 — that’s when you have your 65 or 60 percent decline in the shares.”

Although Roy-Byrne believes that type of correction is “far off into the future,” he was adamant that an event like that will happen before the current secular bull market comes to an end.

Jennifer Shaigec, principal at Sandpiper Trading, said central bank buying shows the bull market is in its infancy.

“I think we’re still actually in fairly early innings,” she said. “The underlying fundamentals for why central banks have been buying gold have not changed. In fact, I can see it accelerating.”

Shaigec went on to acknowledge that gold often experiences a seasonal dip at this time of year, and that some investors may be waiting for a pullback. But she emphasized that the broader fundamentals remain strong.

Drawing a parallel to 2008, when gold fell about 22 percent before rebounding above previous highs within six months, she urged investors to keep a long-term perspective and be mentally prepared for short-term volatility. Shaigec also pointed out that gold has historically been among the first assets to recover after market downturns.

Rounding out the panel, Nick Hodge, publisher at Digest Publishing,…