Ford Motor (F) earnings Q3 2025

DETROIT – Ford Motor beat Wall Street’s third-quarter earnings expectations but lowered its 2025 guidance due to impacts of a supplier fire, which is disrupting production of its highly profitable large trucks and SUVs.

The Detroit automaker said the fire last month at a New York plant for aluminum supplier Novelis is expected to cost it between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, but it expects to mitigate much of that this year and next, largely by increasing manufacturing of the impacted vehicles once supplies are more available.

Ford stock initially fell during extended trading Thursday before swinging to being up roughly 4%. It closed at $12.34 per share Thursday and the stock is up 24% so far this year.

Ford said the total cost of the fire on its business is expected to be less than $1 billion by next year, as the company announced plans Thursday to “significantly increase” its U.S. pickup truck production. That includes adding 1,000 workers early next year to plants that produce the vehicles in Michigan and Kentucky.

The automaker expects the additional production next year to recoup about half of the 100,000 units it expects to lose due to the fire this year.

“We are working intensively with Novelis and others to source aluminum that can be processed in the cold rolling section of the plant that remains operational while also working to restore overall plant production. We have made substantial progress in a short time to minimize the impact in 2025 and recover production in 2026,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a statement.

Ford Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra said the fire occurred in one of three main parts of the plant — a hot mill — with the non-impacted areas continuing to operate. The impacted part of the plant is expected to restart sooner than originally expected in late November or early December, he said.

Ford’s new 2025 guidance includes adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, down from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion as of July; adjusted free cash flow of $2 billion to $3 billion, down from $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, and capital spending of roughly $9 billion, which remains the same.

Ford CFO Sherry House said without the supplier fire, the company was planning to raise its 2025 guidance to more than $8 billion in adjusted EBIT rather than cutting it.

RBC Markets analyst Tom Narayan in a note Thursday called the guidance change “effectively” a raise, backing out the supplier fire and changes in tariff costs.

Ford lowered its expected tariff costs by $1 billion, to roughly $2 billion,  half of which the automaker expects to offset through other actions, due to changes Friday by the Trump administration that included exemption and extending tariff offsets on American-made vehicles.

Here’s what Wall Street expects, based on average analysts’…