Bank leaders seem to have reached a consensus: Despite a minefield of uncertainties this year, the U.S. consumer has remained surprisingly resilient. The takeaway for stock-pickers, though, is far from clear-cut. Ranging from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy to the path of interest rates and a cooling labor market, the questions looming over the economy in 2025 are manifold. The ongoing government shutdown is the latest wrinkle, presenting risks to both the actual economy and investors’ ability to understand what’s going on due to the lack of economic data collection. Through it all, the banking world is still painting a picture of an economy that hasn’t cracked yet. At Wells Fargo , spending in both credit and debit cards remains up “week after week after week after week,” CEO Charlie Scharf said Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York. “There’s this general level of growth and spend that you see. Consumers are spending, but they’re not drawing down savings to do that. If you look at overall savings rates, deposit balances are increasing slightly,” Scharf said. “And they’re not doing that at the expense of credit performance” either. Earnings from the nation’s largest banks and credit card issuers, including Scharf’s own Wells Fargo, have amplified this upbeat view even further over the past week. “The U.S. consumer and the overall macro economy have been quite resilient so far in 2025,” Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank said on its earnings call Tuesday night. “The unemployment rate has ticked up a bit recently, but remains quite low by historical standards.” While Fairbank added that “some consumers are feeling pressure from the accumulated effects of price inflation and higher interest rates,” it hasn’t materially dented Capital One’s results. The company, one of largest U.S. credit card issuers, posted a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report , supported by improvements in credit quality performance. As a result, the Club reiterated its buy-equivalent 1 rating and maintained a $250 price target on the stock. “At a high level, the story that we’re trying to tell is one that’s anchored on the current facts,” said Jeremy Barnum, the CFO of the nation’s largest bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase , on the firm’s earnings call last week. “And the current facts on the consumer side is that the consumer is resilient. Spending is strong and delinquency rates are actually coming in below expectations. So, those are facts that we really can’t escape.” These are facts that investors in consumer-facing stocks like us can’t escape either. Investors should be heartened by the optimism from these financial executives, while recognizing more discernment is needed before taking any sort of action at the stock level. Jim Cramer has long believed that taking only a top-down view on picking stocks can be sheer folly. “You always hear about missing the forest for the trees, but when you’re picking stocks, it’s just as important not to miss…
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