Why India is in Trump’s crosshairs when crude is not even sanctioned

U.S. President Donald Trump added further pressure to India on Wednesday by bumping up tariffs to 50% — but calls for India to immediately stop buying Russian oil could cause global crude prices to spike, industry sources told CNBC.

Trump has accused India of “fueling” Russia’s war machine and said the country is “directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.” As a result, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing total levies against the major U.S. trading partner to 50%.

India was once encouraged to buy Russian crude by the United States, and, unlike LNG, Russian crude isn’t sanctioned, but traded under a price cap to limit Moscow’s ability to profit from its sale. India is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, according to data from Kpler which shows total Russian crude exports amount to around 3.35 million barrels per day, of which India takes about 1.7 million and China 1.1 million.

In New Delhi, there must be “confusion,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House energy advisor to former President George W. Bush, told CNBC.

“Joe Biden went to India after the invasion of Ukraine and begged them to take Russian oil, the Indians hardly imported any Russian oil, and they begged India, ‘please take the oil,’ so that crude prices would remain low, and they did. Now we’re flipping around and saying, ‘why are you taking all this oil,'” McNally added.

Industry sources in the Indian petroleum sector told CNBC the country has abided by all international sanctions, and that India is doing the global economy a “favor” by buying Russian oil which in turn, stabilizes prices. The sources did not wish to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

India has argued that it if it were to stop buying Russian oil, a plan must be put in place to stabilize energy markets, along with a contingency to fill the shortfall in supply if Russian barrels are taken off the market.

“In case India decides to cut Russian oil imports, the refineries likely would try to find alternative barrels from the Middle East, as they used to rely on those barrels until 2022. Likely other buyers would not step in,” Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS told CNBC.

Russia is the third largest global crude producer, after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Moscow produces nearly 11 million barrels of oil per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. India’s Russian crude oil imports was 38% in both 2023 and 2024 and is currently 36% in 2025. Total Indian crude imports are increasing each year with rising demand, and as a result, imports of Russian crude in 2025 are their strongest annual pace yet.

If this supply was…