Summer travel isn’t as easy as it used to be for airlines
A passenger looks at aircrafts at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia on July 2, 2025.
Charly Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images
Making money in the summer is not as easy as it used to be for airlines.
Airlines have drawn down their schedules in August for a variety of reasons. Some travelers are opting to fly earlier, in June or even May, as schools let out sooner than they used to. Demand for flights to Europe has also been moving from the sweltering, crowded summer to the fall, airline executives have said, especially for travelers with more flexibility, like retirees.
Carriers still make the bulk of their money in the second and third quarters. But as travel demand has shifted, and in some cases customers have become altogether unpredictable, making the third quarter less of a shoo-in moneymaker for airlines.
Change of plans, pricier tickets
Airline planners have been forced to get more surgical with schedules in August as leisure demand tapers off from the late spring and summer peaks. Labor and other costs have jumped after the pandemic, so getting the mix of flights right is essential.
Carriers across the industry have been taking flights off the schedule after an overhang of too much capacity pushed down fares this summer. But the capacity cuts are set to further drive up airfares, which rose 0.7% in July from last year, and a seasonally adjusted 4% jump from June to July, according to the latest U.S. inflation read.
U.S. airlines’ domestic capacity is down 6% in August from July, according to aviation data firm Cirium. The same period last year, they cut domestic capacity just over 4% compared with just a 0.6% downsize between the months in 2023, Cirium said. From July to August in 2019, airlines cut 1.7% of capacity.
Carriers that bet on a blockbuster year were left disappointed earlier in 2025 when consumers weighed President Donald Trump‘s on-again, off-again tariffs and economic uncertainty. To attract more customers, many airlines slashed prices, even for flights in the summer peaks in late June and July.
Demand has improved, airline executives said on earnings calls in recent months, but carriers including Delta, American, United and Southwest last month lowered their 2025 profit forecasts compared with their sunnier outlooks at the start of the year.
Further complicating matters, some travelers have been also waiting until the last minute to book flights.
“It really was, I would say, middle of May, when we started seeing Memorial Day bookings pick up,” JetBlue Airways President Marty St. George told investors last month. “We had a fantastic Memorial Day, much better than forecast, and that really carried into June. But it does have the feeling of people just waited a long time to make the final decisions.”
There’s always next year
Now, some airlines are already thinking about how to tackle ever-changing travel patterns next year.
“Schools are going back earlier and earlier but…
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