Trump trade deal energy export wins at odds with tanker ship reality

The Trump administration is touting commitments by foreign nations for future large purchases of U.S. energy as part of recent trade deal frameworks, including with the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea, but a separate recent mandate from the U.S. Trade Representative to promote domestic shipbuilding may stand in the way of making those liquified natural gas shipments reality.

The USTR policy mandates that 1% of U.S. LNG exports be carried on U.S.-flagged ships starting in April 2028, and a year later, 1% needs to be transported on U.S.-built ships. Subsequent annual increases of 1% would reach a total of 15% of U.S. LNG required to be on U.S.-built vessels by 2047.

“The requirement of U.S.-built ships to move the country’s LNG and crude is problematic,” said Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence for Poten & Partners, a company specializing in energy market analysis and consulting, particularly in the LNG sector.

The U.S. government’s new shipbuilding policy was undertaken as part of an investigation into China’s dominance in the shipbuilding industry, as part of the broader national security concerns of the U.S. government (the Biden administration was pursuing the issue as well and released a report in January 2025 stating its recommendations). China manufactures as much as 75%-80% of global freight fleets. In April, Trump announced the new USTR policy to rebuild America’s shipbuilding industry.

On Capitol Hill, Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Senator Todd Young (R-IN), Representative John Garamendi (D-CA-8), and Representative Trent Kelly (R-MS-1) introduced the Shipbuilding and Harbor Infrastructure for Prosperity and Security (SHIPS) for America Act to close the gap with international builders through a series of programs.

There is only one U.S.-flagged LNG vessel currently operating, Crowley’s American Energy, but it was made in France in 1994 and began service in March 2025 to carry LNG from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Puerto Rico. It is a Jones Act vessel, which means that, based on the 1920 maritime commerce law covering shipments between U.S. ports, it needs to be staffed by a U.S. captain and crew, and registered in the U.S., to be U.S.-flagged.

The current number of LNG carriers operating globally is 682, according to Poten & Partners. Only one of those vessels, the LNG Aquarius, was built by the United States. The LNG Aquarius was ordered on July 1, 1974, and delivered by General Dynamics on June 7, 1977. The vessel currently sails under the Indonesian flag, based on MarineTraffic vessel information.

By 2047, Poten & Partner estimates the U.S. would need 45 vessels to move the 15% of LNG required by the USTR guidelines. Currently, there is only one U.S. vessel on the global order books out of a total of 331 planned vessels, Feer said. On paper, he added, the number of LNG vessels on the order books “looks good” to support…