Metals Focus: Gold to Average US$3,210 in 2025 as Central Banks Buy and
Leading gold analysis firm Metals Focus published its annual flagship Gold Focus report on Thursday (June 5).
The report outlines the key trends influencing the gold market and price over the past year, noting that the metal experienced a remarkable run in 2024, driven by improving investor sentiment toward the yellow metal.
Throughout the year, the gold price surged at a blistering pace, starting 2024 at around the US$1,980 per ounce mark and reaching a peak of US$2,790 at the end of October. Since then, gold has continued to climb, setting repeated record highs since the start of 2025 — the most recent occurred on May 6, when gold reached US$3,437.
Metals Focus anticipates that the underlying conditions supporting gold’s record run will persist through 2025, with the price expected to reach a yearly average of US$3,210, a record high.
What’s behind the shift in investor sentiment?
Up until the start of 2025, investor sentiment remained low, particularly in western markets where exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows for much of the year. It wasn’t until October, as the price of gold approached the US$2,800 mark, that ETF inflows in the US and Europe began to gain positive momentum.
Significant purchases by central banks in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe provided essential pricing support for gold behind the price gains in 2024. Overall, central banks added a record 1,086 metric tons throughout the year.
This buying was driven by countries aiming to diversify their monetary holdings away from the US dollar, as gold serves as a non-liability-bearing reserve asset. The shift in monetary policy has gained attention over the past several years, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing concerns over US overreach following the country’s actions to cut Russia off from the global banking system and restrict the use of the US dollar.
Investors also noted the persistent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with fears that the Israel–Gaza conflict could escalate into a broader regional war, which further influenced sentiment in favour of gold as a haven asset.
Geopolitics, uncertainty provide additional price support in 2025
The underlying global drivers have persisted into early 2025, accompanied by new tailwinds for the gold market.
These include the chaos caused by US trade policy, which has created a rift between the world’s largest economy and key trading partners, notably Canada, Mexico, and China. Tariffs have heightened the expectation of a trade war that could affect supply chains and future trade agreements.
The severity, permanence, and outcomes of these measures have only just begun to be felt in the market. US market data registered a slight uptick in inflation numbers for May, and the US…
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