What to expect starting Amazon Prime Day

President Trump said this week that there may be less dolls for children for this year’s holiday season amid his tariff war, but the hit to retail shelf inventory is likely to spread across many shopping categories if there is no quick de-escalation between the U.S. and China in the trade war.

As early as July 4, many holiday sales promotions may start to look different, as small businesses that supply big box retail stores review product inventories and discount plans based on tariff economics. Business owners and supply chain executives tell CNBC the next 30 days are critical for trade deals that lift tariffs on China for the manufacturing orders to be placed and prepared to ship to replenish shelves.

Lauren Greenwood, co-founder & president of YouCopia, which makes storage containers, had moved its U.S. manufacturing to China over the past 15 years to meet the demand from retail giant Bed Bath and Beyond. She recently posted on LinkedIn about the temporary shuttering of the factory outside Nanjing, China, which manufactures the majority of YouCopia products, and opened in January 2025.

Greenwood stopped shipments on April 9, and produced goods are being held in China. Products like the company’s top-selling item, the StoraLid Container Lid Organizer, are at risk for inventory issues if tariffs continue.

“Our manufacturing has been down for three weeks,” said Greenwood. “Come August, there will be some items no longer available, and shelves will be bare.”

Recent manufacturing data from China shows how quickly factory work is slowing, with activity at a 16-month low.

Greenwood said the company has three months of inventory, already impacted by the 20% tariff that was in place on Chinese-made goods before President Trump added 145% tariffs.

The 20% tariffs increased the duties on one shipping container of goods worth $40,000 from $2,500 to over $10,000. That same container with the 145% tariff will increase duties between $75,000-$80,00. “Adding that 145%-plus tariff is not an option,” she said.

“We are raising prices between 20-25%,” Greenwood said. But she added, ‘Our cash requirements of paying a 145%-plus tariff are not manageable. We are not turning production back on unless we see a change in tariffs.”

For the first time since Trump’s tariffs announcement, China indicated this week it was open to trade talks with the U.S., with certain preconditions including the immediate suspension of the trade duties.

“This is a delicate balance. The next 30 days are critical,” Greenwood said.

Amazon Prime Day, Black Friday, Cyber Monday

“Retailers have been trying to mitigate the negative impact of the tariffs for months,” said Jon Gold, vice president of global supply chain for the National Retail…