The Future Of Bitcoin Mining Is Distributed

In a recent video interview by Bitcoin Magazine, Troy Cross, Professor of Philosophy and Humanities at Reed College, delves into the topic of his latest article for Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Mining Issue,” titled “Why the Future of Bitcoin Mining is Distributed.” Watch the full discussion here.

In the interview, Troy explores the centralization vectors in Bitcoin mining and presents a compelling argument for the decentralization of hashrate. Despite the economies of scale that have given rise to mega mining operations, he highlights a critical—and potentially economic—imperative for distributing mining power, offering insights into the future of Bitcoin’s infrastructure.

The following article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Mining Issue”. Subscribe to receive your copy.

Intro

When Donald Trump said he wants all the remaining bitcoin to be “MADE IN THE USA!!!” Bitcoiners cheered. Mining is good, right? We want it to happen here! And indeed, the U.S. is well on its way to dominating the industry. Publicly listed U.S. miners alone are responsible for 29% of Bitcoin’s hashrate — a percentage that only seems to be growing. Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms, predicts that by 2028, U.S. miners will produce 60% of the hashrate.

But let’s be honest: Concentrating most Bitcoin mining in the U.S., especially in large public miners (as opposed to a Bitaxe in every bedroom), is a terrible idea. If the majority of miners reside in a single nation, especially a nation as rich and powerful as the U.S., miner behavior would be driven not only by Satoshi’s well-designed incentives but also by the political whims of whatever regime happens to be in power. If Trump ever gets what he said he wants, the very future of bitcoin as non-state money would be at risk.

In what follows, I outline what a nation-state attack on bitcoin through the regulation of miners would look like. Then I review the incentive structures that have pushed Bitcoin mining to large U.S. data centers under the control of a handful of companies. Finally, I make the case that the future of Bitcoin mining does not resemble its recent past. Bitcoin mining, I think, will revert to a distribution closer to its early days, where miners were as plentiful and as geographically dispersed as the nodes themselves. 

I also argue that despite some Bitcoiners’ enthusiasm for “hash wars”, and despite political chest-thumping, nation-states actually have an interest in a future in which no country dominates Bitcoin mining. This “non-dominance dynamic” sets bitcoin apart from other technologies, including weapons, where the payoff for dominating drives nations in a competition to corner the market first. But with Bitcoin mining, dominating is losing. When nation-states come to understand this very unique game theory, they will help defend it against miner concentration.