Delta, Walmart warn about consumer spending amid tariffs, inflation

It’s not just Walmart.

The leaders of companies that serve everyone from penny-pinching grocery shoppers to first-class travelers are seeing cracks in demand, a shift after resilient consumers propped up the U.S. economy for years despite prolonged inflation. On top of high interest rates and persistent inflation, CEOs are now grappling with how to handle new hurdles like on-again, off-again tariffs, mass government layoffs and worsening consumer sentiment.

Across earnings calls and investor presentations in recent weeks, retailers and other consumer-facing businesses warned that first-quarter sales were coming in softer than expected and the rest of the year might be tougher than Wall Street thought. Many of the executives blamed unseasonably cool weather and a “dynamic” macroeconomic environment, but the early days of President Donald Trump‘s second term have brought new challenges — perhaps none greater than trying to plan a global business at a time when his administration shifts its trade policies by the hour.

Economists largely expect Trump’s new tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico will raise prices for consumers and dampen spending at a time when inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. In February, consumer confidence — which can help to signal how much shoppers are willing to shell out — saw the biggest drop since 2021. A separate consumer sentiment measure for March also came in worse than expected.

Another sign of weakness has been in air travel. The sector, especially large international airlines, had been a bright spot following the pandemic, with consumers proving again and again that they wouldn’t give up trips even in the face of the biggest jump inflation in more than four decades. This week, however, the CEOs of the four largest U.S. airlines — United, American, Delta and Southwest — said they are seeing a slowdown in demand this quarter. American, Delta and Southwest cut their first-quarter forecasts.

Plus, the strong U.S. job market of recent years is showing early signs of stress as job growth slows and unemployment ticks up.

These trends have thrown cold water on what was a red-hot stock market and sparked new fears about a potential recession, sending the S&P 500 tumbling 10% from its record highs in February, though it had recovered significant ground by Friday afternoon.

Now, as investors and executives grow more worried about the impact tariffs will have on consumer spending and fret about an administration they had high hopes for just a few months ago, even the strongest companies are striking cautious tones as the weaker ones get even louder. 

Take Walmart, the retail industry’s de facto leader, which has spent the last year turning an uncertain economy into fuel for growth…