Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

By Finance News On Oct 22, 2024

Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.

Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.

On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.

“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”

It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.

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