China’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment? Investors hope for billions in new
China’s Ministry of Finance, pictured here in Beijing in 2021, is refunding taxes and cutting fees to support economic growth.
Yan Cong | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Investors are on tenterhooks as Beijing prepares to deliver fresh policies over the weekend that could jumpstart its economy.
China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on “intensifying” fiscal stimulus policies, the country’s State Council Information Office said.
With Beijing at risk of missing its full year economic growth target of 5%, some analysts are confident that authorities are ready to deliver major fiscal stimulus at the highly anticipated event, while others remain skeptical.
Investors on edge
Investors had expected a fresh package to be announced during the National Development and Reform Commission’s press conference on Tuesday, which was held shortly after markets reopened following a weeklong holiday.
During that event, the chair of NDRC pledged a raft of actions to bolster the economy. But Zheng Shanjie stopped short of announcing any new major stimulus plans.
The move underwhelmed investors and sent a lengthy rally in the mainland Chinese markets into days of volatility.
With this second shot, the Chinese government has now realized that it’s facing a “whatever it takes moment” and it will do “whatever that is necessary to stop the bleeding of the economy, and to get things moving,” Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Authorities are likely to affirm that at the press conference on Saturday, Zhao said.
Before the Golden Week holiday, Chinese officials unveiled a flurry of stimulus policies, including interest rate cuts, lower cash reserve requirements at banks, looser property purchase rules and liquidity support for stock markets.
Shanghai Composite Index
Many investors and analysts viewed the move as a signal that Beijing was finally ready to take drastic action to revive its ailing economy, following a barrage of disappointing data and amid a slump in consumer confidence. At the time, Chinese major indexes began to rally, surging over 25% as investors cheered on the slate of stimulus measures.
Most economists expect some sort of additional stimulus, but there are many differing views on its size as well as the priorities of the package. Some have floated a figure between two and three trillion yuan (the equivalent of $282.8 billion to $424.2 billion), while others have suggested 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion).
Speaking to “Street Signs Asia,” Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, said the package will likely be focused on stimulating domestic demand, supporting recapitalization of banks, as well as local government debt restructuring.
The consumer stimulus measures could be targeted at social welfare spending, with an aim to free up more household savings, he said. And a small portion of the package could be dedicated to…
Read More: China’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment? Investors hope for billions in new