Warren Buffett’s S&P 500 bet paid off. Some experts say it may be time to

In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1 million bet that he could outperform hedge fund managers over the course of a decade by investing in an S&P 500 index fund.

In 2017, he won.

Some individual investors are making similar bets on the S&P 500 with their money, whether it be through exchange-traded funds or mutual funds.

True to its name, the S&P 500 index includes 500 large U.S. companies. The index is market cap-weighted, with each listed company’s weighting based on the total value of all its outstanding shares. The index is rebalanced quarterly.

The three biggest ETFs track the S&P 500 index, according to Morningstar. They are the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which trades under the ticker SPY; iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, with ticker IVV; and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which trades as VOO. Together, those funds make up almost 17% of the U.S. ETF market, according to Morningstar.

In 2024, VOO has been the leader of those three funds in attracting new money, with $71 billion in net inflows over the first nine months, according to Morningstar, beating the record SPY set in 2023 by $20 billion.

The S&P 500 index has continued to make headlines for new all-time highs in 2024. Year to date, the index is up around 20% as of Oct. 8. Over the past 12 months, it has climbed 33%.

That performance has bested some experts’ predictions for the index heading into this year, owing in part to a stronger U.S. economy than had been anticipated.

“That elusive recession everybody was looking for never materialized,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.

Now, the St. Petersburg, Florida-based firm is predicting a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Yet the run-up in stocks may not be as strong.

“I think you’re going to see more muted performance — still upward, but more muted,” Adam said.

Historically, from the start of October through Election Day, the market tends to be down, on average, by about 1.5% or so, he said.

“The reason for that is the market doesn’t like uncertainty,” Adam said.

The good news is the market tends to recoup those losses and move higher, he said.

Goldman Sachs just raised its S&P 500 index forecast for 2024 to 6,000 up from 5,600 to reflect expected earnings growth. Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, also recently told CNBC he’s calling for a target of 6,000 for the S&P 500 by year-end.