September’s jobs report changes the calculus
More than 75 employers were taking resumes and talking to prospective new hires at a career fair in Lake Forest, CA on Wednesday, February 21, 2024.
Paul Bersebach | Medianews Group | Getty Images
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What you need to know today
Monster jobs report
The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, according to the U.S. Labor Department. That figure smashes the expected 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast and is far higher than the upwardly revised 159,000 in August. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% the month before. Those numbers suggest a recession’s unlikely.
Reversing losses
Major U.S. indexes rose Friday, erasing the previous four days’ of losses to close the week higher. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury added around 12 basis points, almost hitting 4%. Asia-Pacific markets advanced Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the pack, gaining around 2.2% amid the yen tumbling to below 149 against the U.S. dollar during the day.
Rio Tinto eyeing Arcadium
The world’s second-largest mining company Rio Tinto expressed interest in acquiring U.S. lithium producer Arcadium, the two companies confirmed in separate statements on Monday. The deal is still tentative and might not go through, said Rio Tinto. But if it does, Rio Tinto would become the third-biggest lithium supplier in the world.
Starboard Value eyeing Pfizer
Activist investor Starboard Value has an approximately $1 billion stake in Pfizer and wants to turn around the pharmaceutical company, according to people familiar with the matter. Starboard has approached Pfizer ex-CEO Ian Read and former finance chief Frank D’Amelio to be on board with its plans, said the sources.
[PRO] ‘Next dragon in Asia’
Asian countries like India and Japan have drawn interest over the past year, thanks to the steady performance of their stock markets. And China has reclaimed the spotlight after the country unleashed a raft of economic stimulus last week, causing Chinese stocks to surge. But one fund manager thinks the “next dragon in Asia” isn’t any of those countries.
The bottom line
Oh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September’s jobs number. I imagine a harried official yelling, “Did someone use PRODUCT instead of SUM in Excel?”
Because it seems only a confusion between the multiplication and addition functions could lead us to the completely unexpected number of 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added in September — around 70% higher than what economists had expected.
By comparison, August’s number was only 12% off the estimate, and even July’s hugely disappointing report, which sparked the sell-off in early August, was “merely” 37% lower than forecast.
It’s likely the Fed was also caught off guard. “It is doubtful” the Fed would have…
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