The ‘vibecession’ is ending, economists say

By Finance News On Sep 10, 2024

The U.S. seems to be in a soft landing, not a recession: Portfolio manager

For months, economists have wrestled with the disconnect between how well the economy is doing and how badly people feel about their financial standing.

Now, evidence suggests that the so-called vibecession, or that prolonged period of negative sentiment about the economy, appears to be ending, according to Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

As inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates, Americans’ assessments of the future are improving, which is bringing the country’s economic standing more in line with consumer sentiment, Pearce wrote in a report published Friday.

Other economists also note a recent glass-half-full outlook.

“Consumer confidence seems to be catching up with where the economy is,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. “They are kind of meeting in the middle.”

However, it is difficult to pinpoint what is causing the shift in mood, Pearce wrote in his report.

“Our leading candidates would be a lagged response to the news that inflation is falling back and appears to be on a sustained trend back to 2%,” Pearce wrote. “It could also reflect increased optimism for the future now that the Fed is on a clear path to lowering interest rates.”

Setting the stage for the Fed to cut rates

Recent economic data has paved the way for the central bank to lower its benchmark rate for the first time in years.

The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — showed a rise of 2.5% year over year in July. And, though the unemployment rate is still low at 4.2%, it has been trending higher over the past year.

“All signs point to continued progress on inflation, with pressures expected to ease further with the release of the August consumer price index on Wednesday,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

“Other measures of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures index and unit labor costs — have been telling the same story and have set the table for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates this month,” he said.

Markets are now pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will start lowering rates when it meets Sept. 17-18, with the potential for more aggressive moves later in the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

‘Nailing a long-awaited soft landing’

Meanwhile, consumer spending has held up even better than expected, according to the most recent reading.

“The American consumer has been resilient,” Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said in the September issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, released Friday

Despite earlier expectations of a recession, the U.S. has dodged a downturn, according to Kleinhenz.

“The U.S. economy is clearly not in…