How will Ukraine’s incursion into Russia end?
Ukrainian servicemen operate a tank on a road near the border with Russia, in the Sumy region of Ukraine, on August 14, 2024. The Ukrainian army entered Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, capturing dozens of settlements in the biggest offensive by a foreign army on Russian soil since World War II.
Roman Pilipey | Afp | Getty Images
More than a week into Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region and the operation, and the gains made in the last week are likely to have exceeded even Kyiv’s wildest expectations.
Ukrainian forces now occupy more than 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory and have captured 74 settlements, Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the president claimed Ukraine’s forces had advanced even further into Russia, making gains of 1-2 kilometers and capturing more than 100 Russian soldiers since the beginning of the day.
Ukraine appeared to make the most of its newfound offensive momentum by launching the largest ever drone attack yet on Russian military airfields on Thursday, destroying a Russian Su-34 jet used to launch glide bombs at Ukrainian front-line positions and cities, Ukraine’s General Staff said. CNBC was unable to independently verify the claims made by Zelenskyy or the military.
Russia is seething about the incursion which has seen the first foreign army on Russia soil since World War II. It says the raid is designed to stop its rolling offensive in eastern Ukraine, and to destabilize the country. Officials in Moscow have also used the incursion to further attack Ukraine’s Western backers.
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives from the direction of the border with Russia carrying blindfolded men in Russian military uniforms, in the Sumy region, on August 13, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Roman Pilipey | Afp | Getty Images
A grim-faced President Vladimir Putin has vowed a “worthy” retaliation to what he initially described as a “large-scale provocation.” But the gains in the southwestern region of Kursk have seemingly stunned Russia’s military command, which has yet to mount a robust response to the incursion.
Geopolitical and defense analysts warn that a response will come, and while Kyiv can bask in the success of its cross-border operation for now, it does need to have a plan as to what happens next.
Whether Ukraine chooses to consolidate its territorial gains in Kursk, reinforce its troops and continue its advances — or to withdraw its forces while the going is still good in order to preserve lives, and ahead of what might be a furious Russian response — a decision will need to come quickly.
“The initial phase of the offensive that saw quick Ukrainian advances and the establishment of defensive positions in the Kursk region appears to be coming to an end,” Andrius Tursa, Central & Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, said in a note Wednesday.
“While the first week of the offensive appears…