Taiwan under pressure to bolster defense amid Trump-Harris election race
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te claps while he visits a military camp in Taoyuan, Taiwan May 23, 2024.
Ann Wang | Reuters
Taiwan is under growing pressure to build up its defense capabilities and deterrence against China in the face of uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections slated for November, according to security and policy analysts.
Taiwan’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, last month told reporters that the self-governed island must rely on itself for defense and will likely keep spending and modernizing its military in the face of threats from China, which sees the island as its own.
The minister’s comments came in response to presidential candidate Donald Trump suggesting that Taipei should pay Washington for military protection. Trump said that the country “doesn’t give us anything” and has taken “100% of our chip business.”
Experts said Trump’s remarks highlighted the unpredictability that faces Taiwan, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, who has relatively less foreign policy experience.
‘Unpredictable’ Trump
While Biden has been “more consistent in his policy toward Taiwan,” Trump, since the start of his first term, has proven to be “erratic and unpredictable,” said Stephen Naggy, professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, Japan.
This is largely due to a difference in strategy between the two leaders. While Biden has, on several occasions, stated the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense, Trump has opted for “strategic ambiguity,” Naggy added.
Just days after his inauguration, Trump had become the first U.S. president in decades to communicate directly with Taiwan‘s president.
Soon after, he suggested that the U.S. may change its long-held position that Taiwan was part of “one China.” However, he reportedly walked back on that position on a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2016.
Regardless, Trump’s tough stance on China has led many in Taiwan to believe he would support the island substantially, according to Lu-Chung Weng, a Political Science professor at Sam Houston State University.
Similar to 2016, the candidate is running on a tough-on-China policy and has already proposed a major ramp-up of his trade war against the country.
According to Muhammad Faizal, a research fellow at Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, a tougher China containment stance by Trump 2.0 would be welcomed by the ruling party of Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific partners.
However, he added that they also fear that Trump’s “myopic and transactional approach” to foreign and defense relations — exemplified by his comments about Taiwan paying the U.S. for defense — could place them back on his geopolitical dartboard.
Meanwhile, while experts who spoke to CNBC agreed that a second Trump administration was likely to be packed with China hawks who see defending Taiwan as a top priority,…
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