Le Pen’s far-right National Rally election gains
Jordan Bardella, President of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), a French nationalist and right-wing populist party, speaks to over 5,000 supporters at his final rally ahead of the upcoming European Parliament election on June 9th, at Le Dôme de Paris – Palais des Sports, on June 2, 2024., France, on June 2, 2024, in Paris, France.
Nurphoto | Getty Images
With just days to go until France’s snap parliamentary election kicks off, victory for the far right looks increasingly likely in the first phase of the two-stage runoff.
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies are seen winning 36% of votes, signaling growing support for the party’s euroskeptic, anti-immigration agenda, according to the latest opinion polls from Elabe released ahead of the first vote on June 30.
The left-wing New Popular Front, meanwhile, is projected behind with 27%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is predicted to clinch 20% of the support, as of June 27.
The shift away from centrist politics has spooked investors and analysts, who warn of implications ranging from “political paralysis” to “immediate financial crisis.”
But predicting the outcome of France’s final vote on July 7 is less clear cut, given the complexity of France’s voting system.
CNBC takes a look at the likelihood of a far-right French victory and the impact for markets.
A complex system
Under France’s two-stage voting system, all parliamentary candidates who receive at least 12.5% of locally registered voters progress to the second-round runoff — a feat that the National Rally is likely to achieve in a large number of constituencies.
But even with sweeping gains in the first round, the party could be stumped at the final hurdle by voters using “le vote utile” — or tactical voting — to keep them out.
That was seen as part of Macron’s gamble when the French leader called the surprise vote following the National Rally’s record 31.3% gain in this month’s European Parliament elections. Others say the president hopes to discredit his competitors ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election, with Macron since claiming there will be “civil war” if either extreme wins.
Voter turnout for the national election is also expected to be larger — and therefore more representative — than the 51% who cast their ballot in the EU vote.
With that in mind, analysts see a 30% to 40% chance of the National Rally winning the 289 seats needed to secure an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.
A more likely outcome, however, would be major gains for the far right, with the National Rally potentially becoming the biggest party in France, but ultimately falling short of a majority and leading to a highly divided hung parliament.
Market turmoil
Such a stalemate could leave France with lower trend growth, elevated yield spreads and a “worse reputation globally,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC on Monday.
Already, France’s blue-chip CAC 40 index is heading for…