China is testing the limits of U.S.-Philippines defense pact
An aerial view shows a Philippines Navy vessel that has been grounded since 1999 to assert the nation’s sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal, a remote South China Sea reef also claimed by China.
Jay Directo | Afp | Getty Images
China has stepped up its aggression against the Philippines in the contested waters of the South China Sea, calling into question the strength of American deterrence, according to policy analysts.
Last week, the Chinese coast guard seized two Filipino ships on a resupply mission to an outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, severely injuring a navy personnel, according to Philippine officials. The shoal is claimed by both Manila and Beijing.
The area has seen several clashes over the past months. Experts say the latest incident represents an escalation and shows the limitations of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951.
“The failure of the MDT to deter the [latest confrontation] shows the vagueness in the conveyed commitments of the two parties,” said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the Philippines-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation.
Last year, the Philippines and U.S. released new “Bilateral Defense Guidelines ,” reaffirming that an “armed attack” in the South China Sea on Filipino vessels would invoke mutual defense obligations of the U.S.
China, on its part, has been careful not to trigger the MDT by avoiding the use of guns, instead employing ” gray zone” tactics — coercive actions that fall short of an armed conflict — at the Second Thomas Shoal. These reportedly have included the use of water cannons and ramming into Philippine boats.
U.S. ‘gray zone’ conundrum
Beijing’s actions aim to stop resupply missions to a rusted Philippine vessel grounded on the shoal since 1999, as its existence there appears to lend credence to the Philippines’ claim on the reef.
According to Cabalza, unless Manila and Washington do more to increase deterrence, Beijing will continue to employ “gray zone” tactics in its attempt to win the shoal and other areas contested by the Philippines.
“The usage of these tactics should be classified as an armed attack [in the MDT] if the U.S. is serious about helping the Philippines in its strategic and asymmetrical warfare with China,” he said.
GP: Philippine Coast Guard personnel ride a rubber boat past a Chinese Coast Guard vessel during a resupply mission to troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, on March 05, 2024 in the South China Sea.
Ezra Acayan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
An expanded definition of an “armed attack” in the treaty could include “any willful act to inflict injury or that leads to fatality on Filipinos,” said Richard Heydarian, policy adviser and senior lecturer of international affairs at the University of the Philippines.
Those guidelines are consistent with the interpretation of the MDT in a report by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that was unclassified last year.
However, according to…
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